Articles
Extending our international financial centre network to Toronto
Toronto is the latest financial hub to join our expanding network of international financial centres, which already includes Dubai and Moscow. Our agreement with the Toronto Financial Services Alliance includes the sharing of financial, legal and regulatory expertise, working together to reduce trade barriers and develop strong bilateral business relations.
Brazil Economic Report - April 2012
Brazil’s economy expanded by 2.7% in 2011, far below the 7.5% pace seen in 2010. Domestic demand grew at a stronger pace, but overall growth was limited by import leakages. We expect a modest acceleration in GDP growth to 3.2% in 2012, as robust labour market conditions and lower interest rates will underpin solid domestic demand, while the drag from net external trade will be less marked this year.
Russia Economic Report - April 2012
High frequency data point to fairly solid expansion in Q1, with the risks to our forecast for seasonally adjusted GDP growth of 0.9% now on the upside. In particular, industrial production has been surprisingly buoyant after a period of near-stagnation in 2011H2. And recent events in Iran mean we have raised our forecast for oil prices in 2012H2, which should help to support activity in Russia. Based on this, we have upgraded our 2012 GDP growth forecast slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% a month ago.
India Economic Report - April 2012
With its last effort at economic reform ending in a humiliating ‘u-turn’, the government opted for a very cautious budget in March. Raising a number of indirect taxes to help reduce the overshooting budget deficit but not speeding up the introduction of a move to a more efficient goods and services tax.
China Economic Report - April 2012
GDP growth in China held up surprisingly well in Q4 2011, slowing only slightly to 8.9% from 9.1% in Q3. However, the latest data present more of a mixed picture; month-on-month growth in investment has been reasonably strong, but the on-going Eurozone crisis and recent oil price rises mean growth in external demand looks set to remain patchy.
GCC Economic Report - April 2012
Growth in Saudi Arabia is being underpinned by increasing oil production and rising government spending. The tensions with Iran and recent spike in oil prices have prompted the government to increase production; oil output reached 10.1m b/d in Q1 and is forecast to be up 5.5% for 2012 as a whole. Government spending is set to remain high, albeit up only 2% after a rise of 23% last year, because of fears regarding the non-oil fiscal deficit. Overall, we forecast a rise of 4.5% in GDP this year after 6.8% in 2011.
South and Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Report - April 2012
Underpinned by rising wages and falling unemployment, growth in domestic demand was surprisingly strong in the last three months of 2011. Despite this, the more recent monthly data on spending has been less upbeat, with retail sales volumes dropping 0.6% on the month in January. But steady increases in earnings, which grew 8.2% year-on-year in Q4, and employment should support households’ income and consumption in the coming months.
ASEAN Economic Report - April 2012
Having cut interest rates in November and January to support Thailand’s economy following last year’s severe flooding, the Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee left rates on hold this month, with recent data on activity suggesting that the economic recovery is gaining traction. They also raised their forecast for GDP growth this year from 4.9% to 5.7% but we are slightly more cautious, and expect GDP to expand by 4.9%.
Turkey Economic Report - April 2012
Despite the continuing boost from a more competitive currency and strong trading links with the relatively robust oil-producing countries, indicators suggest that the industrial sector is losing some momentum. Businesses are under pressure from tighter credit conditions, the pervading uncertainty about the global economy and recession in the Eurozone.
